It’s now three months since the last Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high, but one measure suggests that holders may be waiting even longer for the next.
$30,000 may stay “for a while”
It’s been 95 days since BTC/USD hit $64,500 and a major correction phase began. Investors are impatient, but despite strong fundamentals, Bitcoin spot price action seems in no hurry to leave $30,000 behind.
At 55% below the highs, Bitcoin is also threatening to cause problems for price forecasting models, including the historically unparalleled stock-to-flow.
If history is a guide, however, Bitcoin can still go sideways for months before rising to beat its record. As Ecoinometrics notes, 2013 saw a period of 197 days between two all-time highs.
“This is one of the longest drawdown Bitcoin has had to deal with during a post-halving bull market,” it acknowledged in Twitter comments.
“But 95 days is still only half the duration of the big drawdown of 2013.”
Back then, BTC/USD reached a price floor 69% below its previous all-time high, meaning that the current market setup could also permit levels below $30,000 and still remain within historical norms.
More broadly, however, 2013 is now looking like the year most similar to Bitcoin price events this year.
“In terms of price trajectory this correction also looks very similar to 2013,” Ecoinometrics concluded.
“If we continue like that, BTC will remain stuck around $30k for a while…”
Retail investors are anything but gone
As Cointelegraph reported, recent on-chain behavior has painted $30,000 as more than just a psychological trading zone for Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin price can only go up if $30K accumulation ‘reset’ continues — Research
In addition to multiple metrics supporting its importance, investors are beginning to accumulate coins once again, including those who previously sold at current levels.
Over the weekend, statistician Willy Woo updated the picture, highlighting retail investors buying and different classes of whales balancing each other out between buys and sells.
“It’s retail that drive Bitcoin bull markets. When they stop buying, that’s a bear market warning. They haven’t stopped buying,” he tweeted alongside multiple charts on Saturday.
“Last 30 days: Whales sold 4k BTC, plebs bought 31k BTC.”