These tools are widely known, but when combined paint a clear picture that backs up any chance that the top coin by market cap is actually undervalued at $40,000 per BTC.
Speculative Boom And Bust Cycles And The Impact On Perception Of Value
Any asset – be it stock, currency, commodity, or otherwise – goes through boom and bust cycles; bull and bear markets. These cycles are more rapid and take place more frequently in crypto than they do in traditional market counterparts.
The reason is both due to the always-on 24/7, global crypto market and the speculative nature of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top coins. Even with adoption taking place, they’re still far from achieving their potential.
Related Reading | Five Bullish Monthly Charts That Suggest Bitcoin Will Blast Off
When speculative assets reach a peak of a bull cycle, they are typically far more overvalued than they should be, which causes such an extreme correction back down toward the “mean.” During bear cycles, speculative assets tend to overcorrect as things appear worse off than they actually are.
Bu this is Bitcoin, and the leading cryptocurrency by market cap might be undervalued even though it recently made a bull market “peak.”
S2F and the Puell Multiple point to an undervalued BTC | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Undervalued According To S2F Model, Puell Multiple
Bitcoin might have collapsed by 50% along with the rest of the crypto market, but it could be significantly undervalued currently due to the overcorrection.
Bitcoin corrected and it was characteristically extreme, but due to the ongoing lack of supply the cryptocurrency is significantly below the normal trajectory through the stock-to-flow model “bands”.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Indicator Suggests Bull Run Isn’t Yet Over
In addition, the Puell Multiple is bouncing from lows, and during this cycle has yet to enter the red zone which is standard of any Bitcoin bull market “top.” The Puell Multiple is calculated “by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.”
The S2F model is more complex, but both look at how issuance impacts overall supply and the price per BTC. Combined, the two fundamental tools suggest that the bull market isn’t finished, and is entering its final stages. The last leg up in Bitcoin as past cycles have proven, will be dramatic and entirely driven by FOMO and a distinct lack of supply.
Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com